The Investments Blog: Android & Windows to be Leading Smartphone OS Providers?

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Android & Windows to be Leading Smartphone OS Providers?

Here's a New York Times article on some recent smartphone OS market research by International Data Corporation (IDC). In the research, IDC projects market share for the 4 big players: Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Research in Motion (RIMM).

They predict the smartphone market will grow as much as 50 percent (from ~ 300 million to 450 million in 2011).

IDC says the Microsoft-Nokia (NOK) partnership could make Windows the # 2 mobile operating system by 2015 behind Google's Android.

Microsoft as eventually the second most popular OS seems a somewhat surprising take from IDC. Here's more on how IDC views the smartphone market this year and over the next several years from this Forbes blog:

"We can safely say that Android and Windows will be the two leading smartphone OS providers in the years to come..."

Operating System|2011 Market Share
Google Android | 40.0%
Nokia Symbian | 20.0%
Blackberry | 14.9%
iPhone iOS | 15.7%

So IDC seems to think that by 2015 Windows Phone will exceed iPhone market share with the Nokia partnership being the key. With change in this market occurring so rapidly it seems kind of odd for anyone to be predicting technology developments that far out in the future. Based upon recent trends, Google as the leader in market share would be no surprise. The idea that "Android and Windows will be the two leading smartphone OS providers in the years to come" seems a stretch at this point to say the least.
(The stretch being "and Windows" naturally.)

There's also a useful chart in this article.

Of course, the differences in economics are likely to be substantial. Apple may end up with less share but I won't be surprised if the economics of their unique model and brand strength remains very lucrative relative to competitors.

It should be fun to watch.

Adam

Long positions in AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT

This site does not provide investing recommendations as that comes down to individual circumstances. Instead, it is for generalized informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Visitors should always do their own research and consult, as needed, with a financial adviser that's familiar with the individual circumstances before making any investment decisions. Bottom line: The opinions found here should never be considered specific individualized investment advice and never a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Origin of Newton's 4th Law?

"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases." - Warren Buffett

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A temperamental market pretty much assures it.

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Notable Quote

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.

Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.

I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.

It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles... ...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - Charlie Munger

The Investments Blog

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Android & Windows to be Leading Smartphone OS Providers?

Origin of Newton's 4th Law?

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