Each day there seems to be another opinion or someone else weighing in on the "double-dip"/no "double-dip" debate.
Double-dip has become a favorite search term. You will hear and read plenty of opinions on this subject all day. I personally don't have/have not had an opinion. To me, finding situations where businesses are mispriced may not exactly be easy but seems doable and worthwhile by comparison.
Predicting what the entire economy is going to do? No idea.
Predicting the future of an individual company? Possible.
So count me out of the whether the economy will "double-dip" debate but at least we have Seinfeld to fall back on whenever that term gets used.
Video: George Costanza & Timmy Debate Double Dip
George takes a chip from the bowl, dips it, takes a bite, and then dips again. Timmy, the brother of George's girlfriend, then rushes over.
Timmy: What are you doing?
George: What?
Timmy: Did, did you just double dip that chip?
George: Excuse me?
Timmy: You double dipped the chip!
George: Double dipped? What, what are you talking about?
Timmy: You dipped the chip. You took a bite, *points at the dip* and you dipped again.
George: So?
Timmy: That's like putting your whole mouth right in the dip. From now on, when you take a chip, just take one dip and end it.
George: Well, I'm sorry, Timmy, but I don't dip that way.
Timmy: Oh, you don't, huh?
George: No. You dip the way you wanna dip. I'll dip the way I wanna dip.
(George grabs another chip, dips it, takes a bite and begins to reach for the dip as Timmy grabs his hand)
Timmy: Gimme the chip!
(The argument becomes an all-out brawl between George and Timmy)
Other than Seinfeld, I've had enough of the double-dip debate.
If there happens to be one, that just means shares of good businesses will likely get cheaper which is a good thing for those with a longer horizon.
Adam
This site does not provide investing recommendations as that comes down to individual circumstances. Instead, it is for generalized informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Visitors should always do their own research and consult, as needed, with a financial adviser that's familiar with the individual circumstances before making any investment decisions. Bottom line: The opinions found here should never be considered specific individualized investment advice and never a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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Applying Newton's Fourth Law
Origin of Newton's 4th Law?
"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases." - Warren Buffett
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Find good businesses; buy at nice discounts to value; stay within limits & stick to what's understandable (necessarily unique for each investor); minimize trading, frictional costs, & errors of all kinds.
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This site is for generalized informational purposes only and the views found here should never be considered specific investment advice.
Visitors should always do their own homework and consult, as needed, with a personal financial adviser who understands their specific individual circumstances before taking action on any particular investing idea. What makes sense as an investment in one set of individual circumstances may not in another.
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A temperamental market pretty much assures it.
Those with a long investing horizon, it's worth noting, actually benefit from lower stock prices in the near-term (though not many market participants seem willing to put this truism to effective use). Those who attempt to profit primarily via speculating on short-term price action likely won't find this way of thinking to be of much interest.
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Otherwise, hopefully some occasionally find the site worthwhile.
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This site's emphasis? Put simply, it's on finding and buying -- with the long-term in mind -- good businesses at a plain discount to conservatively estimated value; it's on selling shares of those well-bought high quality business reluctantly. The view here is that selling makes sense only when core economics become permanently impaired, prospects have been misjudged, market price not just somewhat but, instead, meaningfully exceed per share intrinsic value, or opportunity costs are high. Buy/sell decisions aren't just an opportunity to increase returns; they're also an opportunity to make mistakes. It's easy to overemphasize the former and forget the latter. The focus here is on minimizing trading, frictional costs, and errors of all kinds; it's on staying comfortably within realistically assessed limits. First and foremost is the view that an investor should never make a specific investment based upon what someone else thinks. In other words, what makes sense to own is necessarily unique for each investor and it'd be unwise to not act accordingly. So, more generally, this site simply attempts to better understand some useful principles and ideas in context of investment. It's about, in a practical sense, what tends to work over the long haul as well as what, at times, gets the investor into trouble. It's not about grand theories in finance and economics. These too often distract from what matters or, worse yet, lead to costly misjudgments. As a result, they are mostly viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism here. Otherwise, the best thinking across disciplines should be learned well then put to good use in a way that's uniquely suitable.
About
Notable Quote
"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.
Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.
I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.
It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles... ...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - Charlie Munger
Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.
I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.
It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles... ...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - Charlie Munger