Tuesday, February 9, 2010

'Black Swan' Author: Buffett May Just Be Lucky

Just luck?

From this CNBC article:

Nassim Taleb says there isn't enough evidence to show that Warren Buffett's skill, and not his good luck, is responsible for the billionaire's enormous investing success over the decades.

No surprise but I'm gonna take a different view. Here's how Taleb explains his thinking:

"I am not saying Buffett doesn't have skill — I'm just saying we don't have enough evidence to say Buffett isn't doing it by chance."

Late last year he also said:

I Can't Believe I Live In A World Where Bernanke Could Be Reappointed

What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible - as if we promoted every doctor who caused malpractice.

Taleb added...

No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic tranquility of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.

So not much respect for Buffett or Bernanke...to say the least!

Now that's self-confidence.

Right or wrong the self-imposed silence equals loss of entertainment.


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